Friday, February 29, 2008

DECK down $16


DECK 111.81 -16.65 -11.58%
ISRG 280.63 -9.28 -3.20%
AAPL 125.00 -4.91 -3.78%
RTP 454.83 -9.17 -1.98%
RIMM 103.66 -5.39 -4.94%
SKF 119.71 +8.96 +8.09%


2:30 PM ET

Dow slumps as credit crunch hits AIG

Credit mess slamsinsurer; stocks drop

AIG loses $5.3 billion for quarter, writing down $11.1 billion because of the

Wall Street wilts on economic worries

Consumer sentiment, regional factories sound recession bell

2/29/2008 12:21 PM

S&P falls 3 percent as market extends losses late

Thursday, February 28, 2008

the fly's top list

Here is a current look at my top 10 holdings:
1. (REW: 70.59 +2.62%)
2. (SMN: 36.64 -0.60%)
3. (SKF: 110.75 +5.56%)
4. (SRS: 108.53 +3.71%)
5. Short (LEH: 54.68 -4.84%)
6. (RIMM: 109.05 -2.20%)
7. (FXP: 84.63 +5.05%)
8. (AAPL: 129.91 +5.65%)
9. (GD: 83.00 -0.44%)
10. Cash

FSLR down $12

FSLR 205.26 -12.43 -5.71%
APPL 129.91 +6.95 +5.65%
BIDU 253.00 -5.85 -2.26%
ISRG 289.91 -5.01 -1.70%

Oil tops $102; Dow falls 112


2:30 PM ET

Oil, economic worries hit stocks

Stocks drop on sluggish GDP, Fed's bank warning

Stocks fell on Thursday as worries about the economy grew after a weaker-than-expected reading on gross domestic product and a warning from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the weak housing market probably will cause some bank failures.

Recession worry mounts on weak GDP, job claims

2/28/2008 1:43 PM

Sector glance: Solar falls on downgrades

Solar-power stocks came under pressure on Wednesday after a Banc of America analyst indicated that high silicon prices, greater supplies and weaker demand will hurt profit margins.
Eric Brown downgraded shares of JA Solar Holdings Co. and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. to "Neutral" from "Buy." He also cut his rating on Solarfun Power Holdings Co. to "Sell" from "Neutral" and downgraded Trina Solar Ltd. shares to "Sell" from "Buy." He cut his price target on all four stocks.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

BIDU up $21

BIDU 258.85 +21.05 +8.85%

GOOG 472.86 +8.67 +1.87%

FXP 80.56 -6.04 -6.97%

FXI 154.39 +4.92 +3.29%



2/27/2008 5:48 PM

Bernanke says Fed prepared to help U.S. economy


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday signaled a readiness to cut interest rates again to prevent further damage to the weak U.S. economy, even as he took note of rising inflation risks.



Market Dispatches, 5:15 PM ET
Stocks gain on rate-cut hopes



2/27/2008 4:53 PM

U.S. home sales, goods orders feed recession fears

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

GOOG down $22

GOOG 464.19 -22.25 -4.57%
FWLT 67.26 -11.90 -15.03%
DRYS 79.21 -5.57 -6.57%



2/26/2008 3:31 PM
Weak confidence, PPI jump stoke U.S. stagflation fear

The outlook of U.S. consumers sank to a 17-year low this month as the job market deteriorated, while costly commodities drove producer price inflation in January to its highest in more than 26 years, according to reports that stoked fears of stagflation.

Home prices plunge at record rate in 2007: S&P

Dow up 115 as stocks rise for a third day
IBM's big stock buyback and earnings guidance give most techs a boost

Google falls after analyst cuts price target

Google shares tumbled more than $22 to $464.19 today after a UBS analyst chopped his price target on the online-search giant to $590 from $650.

"A reset of near-term investor expectations as well as continued bearish sentiment may mean the ride is bumpy over the next few months," analyst Benjamin Schachter wrote in a note to clients today.

The number of paid ads viewed on Google fell 12% from the previous quarter, according to online research company ComScore. Google is down 33% this year. Since the stock hit an intraday high of $747.24 on Nov. 7, the stock has fallen about 38%.


Foreclosures jump; home prices fall

housing market continued to plague struggling homeowners.
The number of foreclosures soared 57% in January from year-ago data, according to online foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac. The number of properties that filed for some stage of foreclosure jumped to 233,001 last month, an 8% increase from December, RealtyTrac said.

Monday, February 25, 2008

GOOG down $21

GOOG 486.44 -21.36 -4.21%
FSLR 218.90 +7.16 +3.38
BISU 241.01 -3.38 -1.38%
TNH 139.72 +11.89 +9.30%

Existing home sales slip and prices tumble
2/25/2008 12:46 PM

Friday, February 22, 2008

ISRG up $5

2/22/2008 2:38 PM

Wall St falls as financial shares weigh

Stocks declined on Friday, pressured by financial shares as worries increased about more credit losses and the U.S. economic outlook.

Stocks slide as markets await data

2/22/2008 5:49 PM

Talk of bond insurer rescue spurs late stock rally

U.S. stocks rallied late on Friday on news that banks were near an agreement to bail out bond insurer Ambac Financial, a deal that could prevent further damage to the banking industry and credit markets.

Big reversal pushes Dow up 97

News of a possible rescue plan for bond insurer Ambac turns a 129-point loss for the Dow into a gain of nearly 100 points in just 45 minutes


ISRG 291.57 +5.31 +1.85% After Hours: 287.65 -3.92 / -1.34%

Thursday, February 21, 2008

RIMM up $9

2/21/2008 5:44 AM



Wall Street seen rising further



Market Dispatches, 3:20 PM


Weak economic news slams stocks

Disappointing manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank




February 21, 2008 5:40 PM ET


Dow off 143 as weak economic news slams stocks



FSLR 211.59 -5.41 -2.49%

RIMM 106.67 +8.76 +8.95%

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

RIMM up $5

Inflation gathers steam, housing slides

A steady rise in consumer prices in January pointed to persistent inflation pressures despite fresh signs on Wednesday that the declining housing sector remains a drag on the economy. 2/20/2008 12:03 PM

Wall Street rallies on optimism about rate cuts
February 20, 2008 4:30 PM ET
Federal Reserve signaled its intention to keep cutting rates

Inflation gathers steam as housing slides
February 20, 2008 4:32 PM ET

The Consumer Price Index, a broadly based gauge of U.S. inflation, rose a faster-than-forecast 0.4 percent for a second straight month and was up a steep 4.3 percent in the 12 months through January, a Labor Department report showed.

The Federal Reserve later lowered its estimate for U.S. economic growth in 2008 to a range of 1.3 percent to 2 percent from 1.8 to 2.5 percent that it had foreseen last November.

*** A trader is actively hedging a long gamma position, so he is DECREASING realized volatility on the margins

RIMM 97.91 +5.02 +5.40%

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

GOOG down $20

Crude soars above $100, stomps rally



2/19/2008 4:49 PM



Oil hits record over $100 on OPEC supply concerns



BIDU 246.75 -12.35 -4.77%

FSLR 211.94 -7.45 -3.40%

GOOG 508.95 -20.69 -3.91%

ISRG 508.95 -20.69 -3.91%

RTP 457.21 +21.66 +4.97%

DECK 119.15 +4.77 +4.17%

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Market Dispatches, 12:55 PM ET

Bernanke: Fed ready for action

Fed to act in "timely manner" to support growth

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday held the door open to more interest rate cuts to help the struggling economy, but told Congress the central bank expects growth to pick up later in the year.

Wall Street drops on Bernanke comments

Shares fall on worsening credit market view

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

VIX:VXV Ratio

Expect the VIX to have a tendency to fall and the markets to rise when the VIX:VXV ratio is above 1.10

Look for the VIX to rise and the markets fall when the ratio is below 0.90, in classic mean reversion fashion.

( VXV, which is analogous to the VIX except that it uses a 93 day time horizon in lieu of the 30 day time frame of the VIX)

VIX/VXV = 0.98

Trading is exhaustive

Trading is exhaustive, in the beginning you are energetic, you care about your rules, you buy and sell quickly, follow common sense, stay rational.

Then the exhaustion takes over, you can’t follow the rules, you become emotional, can’t act quickly, give yourself excuses for not following the rules, your responses become slower and slower… until you are done! Finish all your capital is gone you get margin calls…

if you are lucky and may be wise you can stop a little early.. and save some capital… take some time off, relax your brain, get your energy back, put some ideas together and start again… fresh, energetic!

FSLR up $52

Tech stocks power market higher

FSLR 228.46 +52.90 +30.13%

The company earned $62.9 million, or 77 cents per share, compared with $8 million, or 12 cents
per share, in the year-ago quarter.

BIDU 261.09 +15.66 +6.38 After Hours: 286.00 +24.91 / +9.54

Net income in the fourth quarter 2007 increased to RMB219.8 million ($30.1 million), representing a 79.0% increase from the corresponding period in 2006

GOOG 534.62 +16.53 +3.19
ISRG 308.54 +11.86 +4.00
SPWR 80.12 +8.82 +12.37
RTP 438.99 +10.81 +2.52%


Tuesday, February 12, 2008

FSLR down $14

FSLR 175.56 -14.08 -7.42%
AAPL 124.86 -4.59 -3.55%

ISRG 296.68 -5.14 -1.70%

RTP 428.18 +16.18 +3.93

February 12, 2008 12:49 PM ET


Warren Buffett to the rescue?

Stocks rise after the Oracle of Omaha says that his Berkshire Hathaway has offered help to troubled bond insurers


2/12/2008 11:08 AM


Market up on Buffett's bond insurer plan

12, 2008 3:33 PM ET

December job openings and hires slower than 2006

Buffett's rally pushes Dow up 133

Monday, February 11, 2008

FSLR up $16

BIDU 246.71 +12.80 +5.47%
(BIDU will be reporting earnings this week)

Microsoft calls Yahoo rejection "unfortunate"


FSLR 189.64 +16.45 +9.50% After Hours: 190.79 +1.15 / +0.61%
(FFSLR to Announce 2007 Fourth Quarter and Year End Financial Results Feb 13)

From Option Addict's Blog:
--------------------------

Long: GLD, DBA, AEM, CNX, ANR, IEF, XHB, IBKR, CMO, XNPT, CLHB, CREE, ILMN, GYMB, URBN, SDS, WYNN

Short: PCU, DRYS, ESRX, ARTC, XL, RIMM, FMCN, ROP, VLO, RDC, ADSK, MON, CNQ, PRU, FSLR, FLR

Thursday, February 7, 2008

CME Up $41

Data suggest economy stagnating

The housing market has still not reached bottom, the number of workers drawing jobless benefits has hit a 2-1/4-year high and consumers are tightening their purse strings, reports on Thursday showed, suggesting the economy may have screeched to a hal

CME 528.01 +42.76 +8.81%
ISRG 298.65 +4.87 +1.66
FSLR 165.60 -6.11 -3.56%

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

CME down $103

CME 485.25 -103.55 -17.59%
ISRG 293.78 -14.10 -4.58
BIDU 230.00 -23.49 -9.27%
AAPL 122.00 -7.36 -5.69% After Hours: 118.33 -3.67 / -3.01%
GOOG 501.71 -5.09 -1.00% After Hours: 495.67 -6.04 / -1.20%
RTP 409.37 -12.13 -2.88

Rio Tinto rejects BHP Billiton's bid

BHP Billiton bids for Rio Tinto


Market Dispatches, 4:40 PM ET

Stocks fall back despite Disney's gain

The Dow falls 65 points as traders fret that the Federal Reserve won't cut rates between now and March!

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

BIDU down $18.79

New report stirs recession fears

The Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index fell to a reading of 41.9
in January -- a huge drop from the 54.4 reading in December.
The reading was the lowest since October 2001; economists were expecting
a reading of 53. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the industry.
The service sector makes up about 90% of the U.S. economy.

Wall St plunges on services sector woe

Market Dispatches, 1:15 PM ET

Dow 12,331.79 -303.37

Stocks tumble on recession signs

February 05, 2008 2:45 PM ET

Stocks plunge on recession worries

2/5/2008 9:45 AM

Services index plummets, points to recession

Market Dispatches, 4:15 PM ET

Economic fear batters stocks

Stocks suffered their biggest drop in nearly a year on Tuesday after data showed the worst monthly contraction in the services sector since the last U.S. recession and Standard & Poor's warned it could cut bank credit ratings.

Wall Street skids about 3 percent on recession sign

GOOG 506.80 +11.37 +2.29%
FSLR 178.00 -14.90 -7.72%
BIDU 253.49 -18.79 -6.90%
SPWR 66.64 -9.36 -12.32%
SKF 105.39 +8.34 +8.59%

Monday, February 4, 2008

GOOG down $20

Financials, techs lead sell-off

Google is down more than 28% so far this year
and down 33% from their all-time high in November!

Goldman Sachs removed Google from its "conviction buy list" this morning.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Microsoft buy Yahoo !

Market Dispatches, 2:00 PM ET

Microsoft pounces on Yahoo

Microsoft bids $44.6 billion to buy Yahoo


BIDU 269.59 -10.36 -3.70% After Hours: 270.00 +0.41 / +0.15%
GOOG 515.90 -48.40 -8.58% After Hours: 517.59 +1.69 / +0.33%
ISRG 305.61 +51.61 +20.32% After Hours: 306.94 +1.33 / +0.44%
MA 215.42 +8.42 +4.07% After Hours: 213.71 -1.71 / -0.79%