Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Jobless claims report tomorrow morning

This jobless claims being the significant read on the jobs market before the Fed decision next Wednesday. If jobless claims repeats what it showed last week, a jump in claims, it will that the markets have a problem of increased joblessness. Signaling a weakening state of the economy the Fed will likely not pass on a rate hike. Today's market rally was a brisk one all the indices were up DJI gained 300 points and NDX which has been in a  downward trend gained 63 points but something interesting to observe is VIX also gained .43 not a significant number but unusual on a day like today!
NDX still trading in the box.


Monday, November 14, 2016

New president Donald Trump??

Taking the Presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Supreme Court republican party is in full control at the helm. What that means for the economy and the stock market? The policies that were highlighted during Trump's campaign focused on building the infrastructure, 'The first fiscal stimulus in eight years will pour $1 trillion into infrastructure spending' according to an article on seekingalpha.com. 

Major losers from Republicans policies could be technology, foreign/global equity sectors:

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) - Technology
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) - Technology
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) -Technology 
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) - Technology 
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Electric Cars
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) - Solar Panels
Sun Power (NASDAQ:SPWR) - Solar Panels
General Motors (NYSE:GM) - Globalization
AT&T (NYSE:T) - Telecommunications
Mexico (NYSEARCA:EWW) - Mexico ETF
China (NYSEARCA:FXI) - China ETF
Euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) - Euro ETF
Yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) - Yen ETF
Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) - Gold
Major beneficiaries of the Republicans policies could be infrastructure, oil & gas, financials, defense and Big pharma 
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) - Infrastructure
US Steel (NYSE:X) - Infrastructure
Nucor (NYSE:NUE) - Steel
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) - Big Pharma
Ely Lily (NYSE:LLY) - Big Pharma
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) - Defense
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) - Commodities
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) - Big Oil
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) - Energy
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) - Financials
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) - Financials
Lennar Homes (NYSE:LEN) - Homebuilding

Thursday, October 27, 2016

GOOGL, AMZN, LNKD, BIDU

Big earnings announcements today from GOOG, AMZN, LNKD, BIDU and others. NDX is trading in a narrow range maybe till the election results are out.



Monday, September 26, 2016

NDX is trading in the range again

After making new highs for the year last week, NDX is back in the range ($4836- $4750) that it has been trading since the start of Aug end of July this year. At the moment it looks as if the 50DMA ($4800) is proving to be the resistance/floor for the index. But for it to stay in the range, the bottom of this range is around $4750 so we will have to wait and see if that holds in case we break below the 50DMA.


Friday, September 9, 2016

NDX breaking of the range today

Finally after a month of trading in a range bound, NDX broke out this morning. Now the clear downward trend has initiated. A move below the 50 DMA for the 1st time since the 1st week of July. As we are witnessing today and from what can be seen below is the 200 DMA,, when does it gets to that point is anybody's guess, I am not predicting anything here. Additionally something to keep in mind is the 50 DMA is still upwards slopping. For a larger move to happen, we will have to see it slope downward crossing below the 200 DMA and we can see even a larger move to the down side. Typically the longer the market stays in a consolidation phase the sharper the breakout that follows.



Thursday, September 8, 2016

NDX moving in a tight range

Since the beginning of August, NDX is range bound 483*-475*.



Friday, August 26, 2016

Inter-market Relationships


Relationships between:

- stocks and bonds 
- bonds and commodities 
- commodities and the dollar.

in an inflationary environment include:

  • A positive correlation between stocks and bonds (with bonds usually leading).
  • A negative correlation between bonds and commodities.
  • A negative correlation between the US dollar and commodities.

In a deflationary environment: 
  • A negative correlation between bonds and stocks.
  • A negative correlation between commodities and bonds.
  • A positive correlation between stocks and commodities.
  • A negative correlation between the US Dollar and commodities.