Thursday, March 31, 2016

SPY breaches 52-Days high and gaps up

The 52-Day's high was breached and next the market gaped-up in the same direction, today we saw a minor reversal in the early hours of the session but found support near the 50 DMA. The market seems to be in bullish mode for now.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Consumer Confidence (Mar) Tomorrow

Consumer Confidence (Mar):

Mar 29

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

SPY 52-Day high

SPY 52-Day high has not been breached yet. This is important for the bull move to continue otherwise bear have the upper hand and we can see the market move down toward its 50 DMA and even lower below it.

Monday, March 21, 2016

SPY 50 Day MA turning upwards

I wonder if this scenario can occur, when the 50 DMA turns around and moves upwards the underlying move down meet somewhere in the middle. In that hypothetical scenario the 50 DMA can move to 200, SPY touches 206 and starts moving lower to the meet 50 DMA at 200 and then goes under it or maybe it will bounce off of it several times before going down under the 50 DMA, just a maybe...

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Trade Federal Reserve interest rate decision

Wed, Mar 16 2016

Will the Federal Reserve hike its interest rate? Will the FOMC provide hints about the monetary policy...should not expect anything more than a statement about staying the course for gradually higher interest rates and monetary policy normalization.

Monday, March 14, 2016

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

Tuesday  morning Economic Data:

Mar 15
The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Thursday, March 10, 2016

SPY fluctuates 500 points today

Even though the SPY fluctuated 500 points, it closed not far from where the open. Looking at today's candle, it was similar to 2/2, a big move down and a consequent close up, little change. Today's move could be attributed to the ECB's interest rate's decision. It cut the interest rates to 0 which rocked the markets initially but soon normalized. I believe this could be the beginning of the next leg down. The strong ISM report (dispelling the worries of a recession) had pushed the markets higher up until now, but this act from the ECB could create confusion about the state of the European economy and the rest of the world.

Monday, March 7, 2016

SPY above 50 day SMA - Bullish territory

It was a complete inside day but the SPY has been trading above its 50 day SMA for the last two weeks or so as long as we stay above the 50 SMA we are in bullish territory

Thursday, March 3, 2016

SPY touching 200 after two months

200 on SPY can prove to be a strong resistance combine that with the employment report tomorrow and we can see a big drop from here.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Economic reports coming out Friday, MAR 04

Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Mar 04
Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)


Mar 04

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Explosion in Implied Volatility since Dec 15

The avg implied volatility is now 220 vs 50 (pre Dec 2015), that is quite a jump in IV and looks like is going to stay here. As long as IV is this high we can expect anything from this market just like what we saw today an overall movement of 500 points in the SPY.