Tuesday, December 29, 2015

move above 207 again

this where we have seen selling before but this is a very bullish time of the year...

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

moving above 207 again?

207 is where things change, and we see selling..

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

lower lows and lower highs

The straight decline from last week finally stopped at 200 level but what we can see from the chart is that we are consistently seeing lower lows and lower highs. Consistent with the data as the economy is slowing down:

The Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors, provide an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive for the Dollar, while a low reading is negative.

Previous Revised from -3.4%

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

We might see 210 again

The Fed has increased the rates as promised and the market rallied today even though high interest rates means higher yields on bonds and investors should start buying bonds and equities prices should decline but that premise did not hold true today. As the Fed chairman said the rate increase is a testament that the economy is healthy and can sustain the rate hike now. This is the most bullish time of the year for the market any ways so the rate increase may have nothing to do with the rallying market as we can see the SPY has bounced at two other occasions from the same levels before so here we go 210 and may be beyond.

Fed Interest Rate Decision Dec 16

Dec 16

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. 
This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, 
building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. 
It also tends to affect the exchange rate. Generally speaking, if the Fed
is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest 
rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

support held

Looks like SPY found support around the 202 area.. still need to see what happens with the Fed's data comes out..

Monday, December 14, 2015

support holding?

Earlier in the day it appeared as if there was no support. Price went straight through the support line but just before the close the price rebounded bouncing above the support line. It will be interesting to see it we rally from here for the rest of the year. Here is what I read this morning Tim Knight's projections http://slopeofhope.com/2015/12/my-dream-w-a-g.html

Friday, December 11, 2015

SPY near the Nov lows (and Sept highs)

A straight decline for a week for SPY and now near the Nov lows (and Sept highs). It will be interesting to see if we can rebound from here on Monday as we have seen it previously on two occasions. After making a high of 211 last Wed (12/2) the market has declined for more then a week. Although we are waiting for a rate hike in the US, which is supposedly bullish for stocks, this decline could be attributed to the decline in crude/commodities prices and the Environmental meeting being held in France. Technically we are at a point where we could see a bounce from here but nothing is for sure in the stock market.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Still above the trend line

Despite the three day decline in a row, SPY still staying above the trend line.. I believe until the Fed decides on the interest rate the market is going to be volatile.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Support 205.5 Resistance 210

I think if we keep falling down the first support area along the trend line could be 205.5, while there seems to be plenty of sellers above 209-210 area.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Do we see a bounce tomorrow?

We have bounced from the trend line in Nov. can it happen again?
Tomorrow's job report is a key data for the fed to decide on raising the interest rate in its next meeting. I think the mrkt can rebound if the jobs report is according to expectations.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

The fed is supposed to raise interest rate by .25% this month

The Fed is supposed to raise the interest rates by 0.25% the middle to Dec. but it will depend on the other economic indicators like employment and inflation data.

Thursday's important Economic events:

ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
Following the ECB´s economic policy decision, the ECB President gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of EUR and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

Fed's Yellen testifies
FED’s chair testifies before the Congress or some of its Committees to explain the current economic situation and the policies applied to improve it. After the testimony, a Q&A session follows, which can imprint strong volatility across the board

Friday's important Economic events:

Unemployment Rate (Nov)
The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
The non-farm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

a clear breakout?

1st day of the month and there seems to be a clear breakout from the previous range and consolidation below 209. As soon as the previous high of 210.3 was taken out we moved to new high's. The next target/resistance should be around the 211.6 area.