Sunday, January 31, 2016

SPY breakout on Friday

It looks like a clear breakout this last Friday... the last trading session of the month!

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

SPY 190 is acting as short-term resistance zone

After touching the 181 level the SPY seems to have a hard time moving above the 190 level, which reminds me of the 200 level back in Aug 15. In Aug after touching the 181 level SPY was rejected at the 200 level at least 3 times before falling to the 187 level and bouncing to the 210 level. Currently I feel that if we do not overcome the 190 level we could fall even below the 181 level (just a guess).

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Is the down trend over?

The market has declined considerably $15 trillion globally by some accounts but looking at the chart below there is something different. As we saw a steady decline inside a channel, that channel seems to be broken during the market session last week. We have to see if this move is long lasting and we see the market moving up to the 204-205 area or we see another big selloff form here?

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Oil prices and the market decline

Wonder why is the oil price declining and along with it the all the markets? It looks like as oil company profits are plummeting, so oil company shares are plummeting, and that is dragging down the whole market. Does the lifting of international sanctions against Iran send more oil flowing into markets that are already awash in crude and also because economic growth in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., is slowing.
Two of the biggest oil companies in the world, Exxon and Chevron, are part of the 30-member Dow Jones industrial average. Of the 20 biggest share price losers in the S&P 500 this year, 13 are energy companies.
But this latest plunge in prices to under $30 a barrel has investors worried that oil prices are falling because global growth is slowing, as businesses and consumers in many developing countries, particularly China, cut back on spending.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

SPY held above the August2015 (8/24) lows

This is an important line that the bulls seems to be defending twice now. We don't know what happens tomorrow but that was clear today. One other thing that the kind of damage that has been done the markets where normally some central bank would try to say or do something to prop up stock markets. Are the central banks really done with that game for good or not?

Monday, January 18, 2016

What is ATR?

Average True Range: (or Average Volatility)

Movement in price relative to time.
It measures volatility in a stock for a period of time you specify.
The avg of the highs and the lows during a particular period, lets say 10 days.

ATR (10) = 0 .02305
(per day in the past 10 days)

Friday, January 15, 2016

VIX moved above the danger line!!

That does not look good, the last time we saw VIX moving above the 27 line and what happened to the market. This steady decline in the market has now brought us to the Sep 15 lows...

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

SPY in down spiral - market collapse continue

First support level held for SPY, the long red candle looks very similar to Aug 15 candle. This could end up being a capitulation and we see a rally from here or we see some other similar longer candles?? As America’s biggest banks begin reporting fourth-quarter results this week will be interesting to see what will that do to the market.

VIX is rising

The current levels of high volatility, its important to look at the VIX, its been rising since this morning even when the market was up and then we saw how it flipped. So important levels that I usually watch for VIX 27.5, 23, 20, 17 and 12. When it rises, VIX spends a lot more time at the 23 level then other level. Yesterday it hoovered around 23 before rising again to 24.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Friday, January 8, 2016

Thursday, January 7, 2016

China's market is down another 9% today!

China's devaluation of its currency is the cause the market plunging for a week straight. According to the news the chines govt. has installed circuit breakers to automatically stop trading if the market index goes down by 7% (and it has happened twice this week so far). The devaluation of china's currency yuan vs US$ (and other world currencies will impact china's trade with its partners (fearful of its somewhat unknown impact), supposedly, and creating an imbalance in trade. China's economy is also showing signs of a weakness and so is the rest of the world. It looks like this slide can continue even if there is a slight lull in the selling. Watching the charts it seems identical to the market drop of Aug 2015 and this is proving to the one of the worst market conditions for the beginning of a new year.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

3 years for NOW

This is the chart for what now? Futures are down on the news from N Korea? again... looks like we might see the markets opening with a gap down .. unless of course the market realizes their is nothing new in this news (coming out of NK country which has done nuke tests several times before).

Monday, January 4, 2016

1st trading day of the year 2016

First trading session of the year and the market was down more then 400 points at one point before recovering. According to the news channels china's market was do down 7% before trading was halted for the day, I wonder what will happen when the chines market resume trading tomorrow, if the selling continues how will it impact the US and other world markets? SPY took a breather around the 200 support area with a huge gap down if this support does not hold we could see Oct 2015 lows and who knows beyond. From what I know the market can recover all its losses tomorrow and never look back!!