Friday, March 27, 2009

ANNA

ANNA:

A = Anticipation;

Anticipating a behavior (what happens after a loss) that will be happen as a result an automatic response.

N = Notice

Notice the emotions that come up when you trade, such as sadness when you lose.

N = Name

name those emotions

A = Action

Taking action in response to the emotions, e.g., not immediately getting back in the market
after a loss, accepting the fact the losses do happen.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

From Retracement levels:

Go long: 873 and below

Go Short: 925 and above

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Inverse Strategy:

Buy calls when the stock is down.
Buy calls when the Mkt is down.
Buy calls when the Industry group is down.
Buy calls when the call is down.

Do inverse for puts.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

With last night's thinking that GOOG is falling, I sold the calls first thing in the morning. I was in a panic to see GOOG down -$10 in the morning. As I sold the calls, I immediately bought puts and then seeing the stock move I sold some puts against it (to protect it) in case the stock moves up. In few minutes the stock did move up and turned green, that made me feel proud of covering myself from such a situation. But the next hr the stock started falling along with the rest of the mkt and ended down a record.

I did manage to do some thinking before selling the put. I bought Dec. put and sold Nov. one as that will expire in only one day. I thought of it as a sure thing, the OTM puts will be worth nothing tomorrow as I will benefit from any upward movement this week.

To my amazement however, the stock moved down hard ending -$20 for the day. The put I sold tripled in price while the one I bought only increased slightly. The stock's decline had an inverse affect on my spread strategy, as to what I had imagined.
GOOG:
SLD to Open 1 GOU WN GOU Nov $270 PUT Executed $4.80
BOT to Open 1 GOU XZ GOU Dec $250 PUT Executed $16.40
SLD to Close 5 GGD KR GGD Nov $290 CALL Executed $2.10
Dow off 445; S&Pat 11-year low

Energy stocks pull markets lower after crude drops below $50. Citigroup falls below $5. A rally stalls after opposition scuttles a deal to help automakers. New jobless claims hit a 16-year high. Stocks to watch: Citigroup, General Motors, Ford Motor and ExxonMobil.

Wall Street sells off, S&P 500 at 11-1/2 year low

Stocks tumble for second day; Treasurys surge

Dems postpone vote on auto bailout

VIX 80.86 +6.60 +8.89%
SKF 262.45 +39.62 +17.78%
GOOG 259.56 -20.62 -7.36%
FSLR 87.23 -13.90 -13.74%
GS 52.00 -3.18 -5.76%
AAPL 80.49 -5.80 -6.72%

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

GOOG went down again today (GOOG 280.18 -17.24 -5.80%), along with the rest of the mkt. As I saw the stock down in the morning I was somewhat relieved. Last night I had this feeling that the stock will open up high in the morning. I had accepted taking a loss in my mind. Having seen GOOG move up almost $10 in the last hr of trading yesterday, I was very sure that it will keep moving higher in the morning. There was a sense of loss by 1. not selling when I could have early in the day and 2. puts further losing value in the morning.

After missing timely sell of this put at a goof profit twice before, I was really tempted to not miss the opportunity of selling it at a higher price this time. This thinking at the back of my mind really pushed me into selling quickly. If it was not for this was not for this background, I would have waited until the last hr (as I have been doing the last few weeks) and sold it at a higher price.

In other words I was trading today based on experiences from yesterday. I thought the stock will do something much like it did yesterday. In fact, after selling the put in the morning I was waiting for the stock to bounce near the closing today and I will be buying it again at a lower price. But in fact that did not happen, the stock kept moving down and the puts increased in price value.

After my successful sell in the morning, I felt somewhat proud of myself, by not missing out this time. As being successful this time I already had another trade figured out in my mind. I looked at the 5 day chart of GOOG and assumed (with great confidence) that GOOG (always) moves higher near the end of the day and then falls back the next morning. So all I had to do was sell now wait until the last hr buy back and sell the next day. I told myself that I finally had it figure out. The stock did bounce a little (not as much I was expecting) I did not buy. It did not move up again for the rest of the day and closed making another low.

Being disappointed at myself for missing a trade I had planned and waited on since this morning, I almost did a revenge trade on GOOG. I bought 5 call contracts. It was a very unplanned, reactive and impulsive trade. I know that GOOG sometimes spikes up for no reason. If that happens tomorrow this will prove to be a good trade otherwise it was just another emotional/irrational trade decision.